Gulf crisis: How global oil supply disruptions impact the Philippines

2026-03-11 - 00:14

For millions of Filipino households, changes in global oil prices are felt almost immediately through increases in fuel costs, transportation fares, and prices of everyday goods. These concerns are coming into focus as the ongoing armed conflict between the United States and Iran already causes strains in the global economy due to disruptions in the oil supply. The current crisis reached a critical turning point on February 28, 2026, following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in joint US-Israeli airstrikes. This escalation triggered a wave of retaliatory strikes across the Middle East, placing the world’s most vital energy infrastructure directly in the line of fire. The Middle East remains the heart of global energy, housing five of the world’s top 10 oil producers and accounting for over 40% of global exports. With instability now looming over the Strait of Hormuz, where around 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade is transited, energy markets are bracing for a sharp, sustained rise in oil prices. This creates a direct risk for the Philippines, which sources 98% of its raw crude oil from the region. Any disruption to the flow of energy from the Middle East, where approximately 90% of LNG and crude oil exports are destined for Asia, would trigger an immediate “oil shock” for local consumers. Following his March 7 warning that the Philippines’ oil reserve is sufficient for only 50 to 60 days, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has signaled a shift toward drastic emergency measures to stretch remaining resources and cushion the blow for consumers. These interventions include a transition to a four-day onsite work week intended to save up on national fuel consumption, alongside proposed fiscal relief through the temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes to stabilize soaring retail prices. This curated series of reports explores how the conflicts in the Middle East unravels the vulnerability of the global oil supply chain, and how it directly impacts the Philippines’ inflation and everyday life. OIL AND MARKETS: THE ECONOMIC TOLL Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt US President Donald Trump says he thinks the war against Iran ‘is very complete’ and that Washington is ‘very far ahead’ of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame Oil shoots higher, shares skid as Middle East conflict drags on With no sign of an end to hostilities in the Middle East and tankers still avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, investors are bracing for a prolonged period of higher energy costs Iran names Khamenei’s hardline son Mojtaba as new supreme leader, oil surges The position gives Mojtaba Khamenei the final say in all matters of state in the Islamic Republic [Vantage Point] The ₱90 per liter oil warning: How Gulf conflict could hit local fuel and power prices The prospect of ₱90 per liter of gasoline is no longer a distant scenario but an emerging risk that could ripple through transport costs, electricity generation, and the broader cost of living across the country PH on the cusp of A-level credit rating: Will this still happen with Middle East conflict? The prospect of ₱90 per liter of gasoline is no longer a distant scenario but an emerging risk that could ripple through transport costs, electricity generation, and the broader cost of living across the country GOVERNMENT RESPONSE AND POLICY 4-day on-site workweek in some gov’t offices starting March 9 — Marcos (2nd UPDATE) President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announces his government’s preparations in anticipation of the spike in oil prices following the United States and Israel’s war on Iran How will suspending fuel excise taxes cushion a big oil price hike? President Marcos plans to ask Congress to grant him temporary powers to suspend the fuel excise tax as the Philippines braces for the ‘highest jump’ in oil prices in history Gov’t warns vs profiteering, excessive pump prices amid Middle East conflict ‘They just announced price increases in the world market but some retailers already raised their prices. This is profiteering,’ says Senator Sherwin Gatchalian How to submit gas station complaints through the eGovPH app The launch comes ahead of a staggered, big-time hike on pump prices beginning Tuesday, March 10 How Visayas LGUs are implementing energy-saving measures From ride-sharing to taking bikes to work, these Visayas-based LGUs are taking proactive steps to reduce fuel consumption and conserve energy – Rappler.com