Visayas may face yellow power alert in May — climate report

2026-03-24 - 13:41

MANILA, Philippines – The Visayas is vulnerable to facing a yellow power supply alert in May, according to the latest power outlook report for April to June 2026 released on Tuesday, March 24, by the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC). A yellow alert in grid status means that “the operating margin is lower than the required regulating and contingency reserves” and “signals grid vulnerability.” This is not only due to the projected high summer demand, but also because of persistent problems in forced outages of baseload plants and inadequate reserves. The Visayas already recorded the first grid alert of the year — a yellow alert on January 20 — during the cool season when demand is typically low. ICSC attributed this mainly to structural instability in the power system. Meanwhile, Luzon and Mindanao are projected to have adequate reserves throughout the second quarter of the year. For prevention of grid alerts, the report recommended preventing unplanned outages, increasing distributed generation capacity, and timely commercial operation of committed capacities. The report was released amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which continues to impact global energy markets and contribute to the volatility in fuel prices. The situation has direct implications for the Philippines’ power sector, particularly for diesel-dependent sources and the cost of electricity generation. Luzon and Mindanao are encouraged to reduce their power export to the Visayas, while the Visayas can import at least 450 MW from Mindanao and 250 MW from Luzon as needed. In Luzon, the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Interruptible Load Program (ILP) can supplement the region’s power supply during yellow or red alerts, but the ILP relies on diesel-powered generation which could become immensely costly due to the current oil crisis triggered by the war in the Middle East. Inflexible power grid The report said the Philippines produces approximately 18,511 MW of dependable capacity through its baseload coal plants, operating at maximum capacity daily. This is 6,500 MW more than the country’s approximately 12,000 MW actual baseload requirement during non-peak hours. Coal plants are designed to run at a steady, continuous output 24/7, contrary to fast-ramping ones like battery storage, pumped hydro, and open-cycle gas turbines. If coal plants are made to run like those flexible resources, they degrade more easily, which in the long run results in more frequent power outages and market volatility. On the other hand, natural gas plants that can manage demand swings are utilized like a baseload. In other words, there is surplus in power capacity while available flexible resources are not used efficiently. The secondary price cap (SPC) also prevents price increases during peak periods, which ICSC believes discourages investments in more flexible capacities. ICSC senior data analyst Charles Jason Diaz reported that the times when grid alerts are raised are indications that there is a need for flexible generation. With this, they recommended shifting the focus to increasing the country’s baseload capacity and moving towards a flexible and diversified power generation mix. Diversifying the energy sources ICSP said that in 2025, coal accounted for 56% of the country’s power generation, and that coal plants have frequently exceeded their allowable forced outage rates and durations. This challenges the notion that coal is a reliable and affordable baseload source. In reality, the country consistently deals with high electricity prices and insecure supply. They blame import dependence. Most of the 70% coal import in 2024 was used for power generation, which placed the country in the direct line of fire of market volatility. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already being significantly felt by the oil industry — if this continues, it will be imminent for some diesel power-plants to cease operations. According to ICSC chief data scientist Jephraim Manansala, coal prices have increased to 12% in just two weeks since the Middle East conflict. The country stands at the mercy of global oil market volatility as long as coal import dependence continues. They proposed solar roofs as a low-hanging fruit solution, as well as prioritizing indigenous energy to reduce systemic risks and make energy more affordable. Data show that coal dominance in the Philippines rose from 10% in the 1990s to about 60% in 2024, but import dependence only exposed the country to vulnerabilities in demand fluctuations and supply disruptions. ICSC’s analysis used force outage assumptions of approximately 700 MW to 800 MW, taken from estimates in the 2024 power outlook of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP). ICSP has noticed significant events affecting the power grid throughout 2025, but the NGCP has yet to release a 2026 power outlook, which added to the limitation of the projection. They called on the NGCP and DOE to publish timely updates for a more accurate outlook. – Rappler.com